The Only Certainty Is Volatility

On November 26, 2012 by TradingDesk

A fragile truce between Israel and Hamas has taken some of the supply-disruption buying out of the market over the past few days, but protests in Egypt have tempered the selling, as it reminds many of the Arab Spring of 2011, and the surge in oil prices it brought. Charts are turning it favor of the bulls, and typically we should see our seasonal lows on refined product prices sometime in the November/December time frame. If RBOB and HO are able to break through their November highs, just a few cents away from current levels, another 10-20 cent rally is likely, and suggests that the lows seen in the first week of the month will be the cheapest values we see this winter.

Meanwhile, uncertainty remains on the future of Greek debt, Spanish nationality and the US fiscal cliff, which should provide plenty of volatility as we enter the home stretch of 2012.

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