Another Session Stuck Within Trading Ranges

On October 2, 2012 by TradingDesk

It’s another mixed day for energy futures, with RBOB now leading the way lower, while WTI and HO hold slight gains despite their European counterparts, Brent and Gasoil also falling. Without any major economic headlines expected today, it appears that we’ll spend another session stuck within trading ranges. $90 is the key support level for WTI, with $95 the ceiling. HO is stuck between $3.05 and $3.25, while RBOB appears poised to test its September low of $2.80.

Perhaps the most interesting news to impact energy markets this week is news that a Washington DC judge threw out position limit rules that the CFTC had been working on for 5 years, and which were set to take effect in just two weeks. While there hasn’t been an immediate impact on prices, it does suggest that the huge flows of speculative money into and out of commodities will be allowed to continue, relatively unrestricted.

CLICK HERE for a PDF of this morning’s charts


Energy Futures Showing Mixed Results

On October 1, 2012 by TradingDesk

Energy futures are showing mixed results as we begin the 4th quarter, which seems to be a fitting statement on the current state of global financial markets. The two major macro themes we’ve been watching closely all year – slowing economic growth vs. central bank stimulus and ample global petroleum supplies vs. the threat of middle east disruptions – continue to provide great fodder for debate, without providing much direction.

While it would be nice to say these issues would sort themselves out before year end, it seems more likely that we’ll be focused on them for much longer.

RBOB prices have come back to reality, after last week’s historic short squeeze (rumors are still raging over who exactly got caught) sent the expiring contract nearly 30 cents higher, a 53 cent rise for the week. With November taking the prompt spot, we return to a neutral to bearish technical outlook, with higher RVP product poised to flood the physical market as well.

HO continues to tread in neutral territory, with a breakout of the $3.05-$3.25 range needed to provide direction for the rest of the year.

CLICK HERE for a PDF of this morning’s charts