Today’s Market Activity

On August 22, 2012 by TradingDesk
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Today’s Market Activity

On August 21, 2012 by TradingDesk
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Today’s Market Activity

On August 20, 2012 by TradingDesk
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Increase in Gasoline Demand A Catalyst For Price Rally

On August 16, 2012 by TradingDesk
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With stock markets still stuck in “do nothing” mode, energy prices took their cue from the DOE report yesterday, and the 5% increase in weekly gasoline demand was precisely the catalyst needed to send prices up through technical resistance and on to a big rally. With that hurdle cleared, there is very little on the charts to keep RBOB and HO prices from trying to set new highs for the year. Seasonally, products should have about a month-long window to keep pushing higher, although fall rallies don’t typically reach the heights seen during the spring.

Tropical storm Gordon has formed in the Atlantic overnight, but at this point there are no threats to land forecast. Elsewhere tropical development isn’t predicted for another 6 days, which will put us directly in the peak season for storm formation.

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Energy Prices Remain On The Cusp

On August 15, 2012 by TradingDesk
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The summer sleepwalk trading is continuing, with narrow trading ranges on light volumes continuing as most of Europe is at the beach, and the rest of the world is still recovering from an Olympic hangover. Global stock markets are moving modestly in the red, as the Chinese Central Bank hinted that they’re less likely to cut reserve rates to stimulate their economy as many have expected. The NY FED’s manufacturing survey showed the first drop in activity in nearly a year.

Energy Prices remain on the cusp of another breakout that should threaten the 2012 highs, but have stalled out for now, and appear to need a catalyst to get them over the hump. That very well may come from the middle east, with more speculation overnight that Israel is on the verge of a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Technically, the bulls remain in control, and seasonally we typically would see another 10% rally before our fall peak.

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Energy Prices Still Favor Bulls, But Signs Of Topping Are Visible

On August 14, 2012 by TradingDesk
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US Markets popped higher this morning, on the heels of positive Asian stock markets and after retail spending for July rose .8%, compared to -.8% in June, easily beating forecasts. 20 minutes after the announcement however, markets have flattened out, making it appear that we’ve returned to the “good news is bad” mentality, reflecting trading hopes for central bank stimulus. PPI for July was slightly stronger than forecast – .3% – which is also a minor drag for the printing press crowd, since any signs of inflation make it more difficult for the FED to justify QE.

While stock markets remain near multi-year highs, volume has been shrinking during the past couple of weeks, with some measures showing the lowest trading volumes in nearly a decade, which is causing concern that the rally is sustainable. Energy prices still favor the bulls, but here too we’re beginning to see signs of topping showing up on the charts. RBOB must get back above $3, and HO over $3.05 in order to take the next step in the seasonal rally. If we fail, there’s a lack of technical support until the $2.80 range, but a break above still sets up a push to $3.25.

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Door Open For Continued Seasonal Rally Of Refined Products

On August 13, 2012 by TradingDesk
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Energy prices are being led higher, despite many global stock markets trading modestly lower, by Brent Crude oil, which is benefitting from a heavy maintenance period on North Sea Crude platforms, and after the latest war of words raises the tensions between Iran and Israel.

With refined products having broken – and held – above $3.00, the door appears open to continue the seasonal rally, with charts setting up targets in the mid $3.20s before a typical fall peak arrives in September.

The tropics are relatively quiet today, as the latest pair of systems which were developing Friday appear to be no threat to the US, and may not even reach land before breaking up. We are nearing the peak time for storm development however, with forecasts predicting another 4-5 named storms before the season is finished.

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Markets Across the Globe in the Red

On August 10, 2012 by TradingDesk
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Slowing import/export data from China has markets across the globe in the red this morning, but the moves are fairly minor in size – less than 1% for most – and in general the lethargic trading pattern seems to be continuing.

Perhaps the most noteworthy news of the morning came from the USDA’s crop report, showing that the drought-related losses to corn and soy crops were even worse than feared, with the lowest yields in nearly 20 years expected. The continued degradation of crops should hold Corn and Soybean prices at their current record highs, biofuel margins running in the negative, and shouts for a change to Renewable Fuel mandates will continue to crescendo.

Meanwhile, two other storms are brewing in the Atlantic, with one expected to become Tropical Storm Gordon over the next day or two. While neither system appears to be a threat to the gulf coast yet, it is still very early in the development stage for both, and both do have at least a potential for ending up in the extremely waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

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Markets Continuing Lackluster Trading Today

On August 9, 2012 by TradingDesk
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Markets are continuing their lackluster trading today, with slight favor for the bulls on the charts.

Overnight data out of China and India showed that those growth engines of the global economy continue to show signs of slowing, but with light inflation, hopes are high that their central banks will provide more stimulus. While that may or may not happen, it was reported that China will raise its heavily subsidized fuel price by 5% nationwide, to offset government losses due to high priced products.

Speaking of high prices, HO is trading back above $3, and WTI above $93, which puts them above near term resistance and looking to push higher, with charts suggesting a move to $3.25 and $100 respectively may be coming. RBOB is the laggard at the moment however, and act as a drag on the other two, after the DOE report yesterday showed that US consumption of gasoline continues to struggle.

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DOE Weekly Report

On August 8, 2012 by TradingDesk
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